Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) – The Science, Climate History, and Politics

This is a collaborative tutorial on Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) or man-made climate change. The purpose of this tutorial is to educate people on the science of climate change, and it’s political and corporate drivers in an open, professional, unbiased forum. Constructive comments through a moderated comment section are encouraged. This presentation is based on the work of Charles Wilkerson, Professor Ian Plimer, Ph.D., and Terry Tromby with assistance from scientists and engineers at UCLA and the Northrop Grumman Corporation.

Page 1

Where did AGW come from?

Download the US Senate Report on billionaire control of the EPA and the environmental agenda (PDF)
Download the Senate Report “The EPA playbook: A Story of Fraud, Deceit and Secret Science

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the good

The Bad?

the bad

The Really Bad

CCS = Carbon Capture & Storage

The proposed scheme for reducing CO2 emissions from fossil fuel-fired electricity generation plants (coal, gas, liquid)

BUT do the math for just US coal-fired plants:

the really bad

the ugly

the answer

natural gases

man-made gases

water vapor GHG

What do you believe?

• Human activity has a significant effect on the Earth’s climate? (Yes / No)

• Human activity has a negligible effect on the Earth’s climate? (Yes / No)

• This tutorial will allow you to formulate your opinion based on the evidenced presented.

Learn so you can to fight lies

Implicit Sequence of Messages

• This tutorial will show the overwhelming evidence for human’s activity having a negligible effect on the Earth’s climate.
• Definitions and Distinctions: What is “green”? Air pollution is bad. CO2 is not a pollutant.
• The resolution of the question lives ultimately in the domain of science. Thus, It’s essential to understand the physics and climate history to a certain level prior to a discussion of public policy and the political aspects of the issue.
• The physics of interest are associated with galactic & solar phenomena and Earth surface (oceanic, land, and atmospheric) energy exchange phenomena.
• We know with reasonable certainty what the climate has been in the past because of footprints left by physical phenomena which effect climate. We know this things because of the geological records and ice core records.
• In the past the climate (mean Earth surface temp) has varied as well as CO2 concentrations and there is no significant correlation between the two.
• The heat exchange mechanisms at the Earth’s surface include infra-red (IR) back- scattering (the greenhouse effect), however, man-made CO2 is an insignificant contributor to an insignificant so-called greenhouse gas operating within an energy exchange mechanism which depends primarily on solar and galactic phenomena as the dominant drivers (“forcings”).
• The “man-made” theory was advanced via politically-inspired manipulation of climate history data. This has been exposed in both the US congress and within the EPA.
• Current U.S. legislation (Waxman-Markey) depends totally on human activity being a significant driver of climate and is, therefore, wasteful of human resources and corrupt at its heart.
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Sources

Heaven and Earth – Global Warming – The Missing Science –Copyright 2009
– a book by Ian Plimer, Twice winner of Australia’s highest honor, the Eureka Prize, Professor in the School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Adelaide, author of six other books for the general public in addition to 120 scientific papers
– This book and Dr. Plimer stalled and possibly defeated a cap & trade bill working its way through the Australian legislature (Real Clear Politics 06/24/09)
– It is voluminous and serves as the main source of climate history information for this briefing – a tour de force of 2009-level climate science written for the layman
– 2,311 references

Empirical analysis of the solar contribution to global mean air surface temperature change (July 2009)
– A paper by Nicola Scafetta, Department of Physics, Duke University, Durham, NC

Trends in the middle- and upper-level troposphere humidity from NCEP reanalysis data (Feb 2009) – by Paltridge, Arking and Pook

Page 13

Sources (cont’d)

Falsification of Atmospheric CO2 Greenhouse Effects Within the Frame of Physics” by Gerhard Gerlichand Ralf D. Tscheuschner 09/09/2007
Proposed NCEE Comments on Draft Technical Support Document for Endangerment Analysis for Greenhouse Gas Emissions under the Clean Air Act (circa June 2009)
– draft submittal of the 83-page report by NCEE(National Center for Environmental Economics, a branch of the EPA) by EPA scientists unnamed
– reportedly criticized and buriedin 2009 (Fox News Channel & CNET) by EPA management:
• "The administrator and the administration has decided to move forward [in support of ‘endangerment findings’ related to man- made CO2]…and your comments do not help the legal or policy case for this decision."
• And other scientific papers

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Scope & Further Study

• This tutorial represents only a fraction of the scientific literature presenting data and analysis which address both the Earth’s climate and the man-made global warming hypothesis and viability of its “supporting evidence”.

• Nevertheless, it is believed that the scope and depth of the subject matter included herein is sufficient to give the reader a reasonably thorough and accurate background of the entire subject.

• The aforementioned book by Ian Plimer (2009) is rich in references to historical and recent scientific literature on the Earth’s climate as well as to reports authored by various proponents of the man-made theory of global warming (or “climate change”)
A total of 2,311 references
– and is highly recommended as a beginning source for the serious investigator

Attribution: This tutorial includes numerous quotes from public statements and publications. We have, in most cases cited the source of such, however, we are not responsible for the accuracy of these beyond the sources cited.

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Topics

• Climate Fundamentals

• Climate History
• The “Man-made” Hypothesis
• Evidence & Computer Models
• IPCC, FunnyBiz, EPA, Congress & the Courts
• Kyoto & Waxman-Markey (ACES)

Page 16

• CO2 my clavicle! I just want to breath clean air.

Page 17

A Distinction: Air Pollution –vs- CO2

• The “Asian Brown Cloud” is as large as Australia.

– Its effect on humans is profound (and intolerable)
– The industrial air pollution in western cities such as London during the first half of the 20th century was worse than that of Beijing today
– The problem has been largely solved in European and North American cities by effective pollution controls on industrial site and transportation vehicle emission sources
– The same measures will likely eventually solve the Asian air pollution problem as well

CO2 is a plant food, not a pollutant

– It is essential to life
– The combination of ample CO2 and a warmer global climate generally translates into prosperity for humankind

Page 18

Climate Science Basics

Matter & Energy

Solar Radiation Principles

The Cosmic Connection to Climate

• Beginning with Henrik Svensmark's’ work in 1996, a multitude of scientists and scientific projects began to focus on the connection of cosmic radiation to climate:
– Extensive cloud chamber experiments involving atmospheric gases and ionizing radiation,
– NASA’s Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (3 satellites): incoming & outgoing atmospheric radiation and its correlation with the worldwide cloud cover detailed structure, and
– Extensive multi-program satellite & telescope data on the cosmological structure of the Milky Way galaxy, the trajectory of the solar system through the galactic arms, detailed climate, geophysical & paleontological history of the Earth and the structure and history of star clusters near the Earth’s galactic trajectory
have all established with a high degree of certainty that The primary driver of the Earth’s climate is the combination of cosmic radiation and (to a lesser extent) the magnetic field strength of the sun:
• Low clouds – primarily cumulus – result in cooling at all latitudes except in Antarctica. In Antarctica, because of the high solar reflectivity of the ice layer, low clouds result in warming. At other latitudes, the combination of greater solar reflectivity from the cloud tops and greater (than with higher clouds) re-radiation back into space result in cooling.
• Low cloud formation is greatly influenced by high energy cosmic particle penetration – with a correlation of 92%!
• Cosmic particle flux, especially near star burst regions, is high within the galactic arms (where the particles are confined by strong magnetic fields) and comparatively low outside of the galactic arms.

Earth is a ‘snowball’ (almost entirely glacial) when the solar system is within galactic arms (and in the proximity of star clusters) and warm outside of these.
– The current warming will be only a brief respite from continued cooling due to our location in the Orion arm
This cosmic ray effect on climate is 10x greater than the variation in solar radiance (due to solar activity, Earth-to-sun distance and season)

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Solar, Galactic & Planetary Effects

>

Known Periodicities

In Summary: Climate Drivers & Modifiers

• The Earth’s climate is driven by three primary mechanisms :
– Cosmic Radiation from (Milky Way) galactic sources
– Emissions from the Sun
Radiation: infrared, ultraviolet, X-Ray, Gamma ray, etc.
• Matter: molecules & ionized atoms (the solar wind)

– Planetary perturbations (Milankovitch Cycles)
• Precession (wobbling) of the Earth’s spin axis
• Variations in the Earth’s orbit with respect to the Sun
• Variations of the sun’s position with respect to the Solar System center of mass

Note: The words “climate” and “mean Earth surface temperatureare equivalent

Page 26

Climate Drivers & Modifiers (cont’d)

• Atmospheric gasses absorb radiation from the Earth (incorrectly named “the greenhouse effect”) – but the amount of radiation is primarily dependent on the three aforementioned mechanisms which, in turn, force oceanic-atmospheric energy exchange phenomena.
– Water vapor is by far the dominant gas:
– 95% of the total “greenhouse effect” is due to water vapor.
– Water vapor is produced by the sun and the core temperature of the planet
• Human activity does not create any significant amount of water vapor.
– CO2 in the atmosphere = 3.62%, N2O & methane = 1.31%
– The man-made contribution = 0.12% CO2 & 0.14% other GHG’s
.
• Condensed water (clouds) in the atmosphere reflect part of the solar radiation back into space (contributing to the “albedo” of the planet, i.e. the reflectivity of the planet to sunlight).
– Clouds form both as a result of cosmic ray bombardment and convection of water vapor from the oceans, lakes, etc.

Page 27

Evidential Sources of Climate History

• We can determine past global surface temperatures, glaciations, sea level changes, volcanic events, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations from

– Ice samples
– Sea floor and lake sediment samples
– Tree rings
– Rocks
– Fossils
– Bog and peat constituents
– Pollen (from fossils)
– Human historical records:
• Scientific, financial, harvest, prices, government, legal, shipping logs, etc.

• Scientific disciplines required:
– Astronomy, solar physics, geology, geochronology, geochemistry, sedimentology, tectonics, paleontology, palaeoecology, glaciology, climatology, meteorology, oceanography, ecology, archaeology, and history
– Are all of these essential disciplines adequately represented within the IPCC science staff?
Not really! – more to follow on the IPCC

Page 28

Evidential Sources of Climate History (cont’d)

• Evidence of solar and galactic phenomena (e.g. solar flares, cosmic ray & meteorite showers) is obtained from ancient ice and sediment layers

– Cosmic rays produce radioactive atoms in the atmosphere and interact with dust particles to produce 10Be leaving signatures in ice, fossils, tree rings, bogs & peat
– These signatures correlate strongly with solar cycles, ancient temperature, ice, atmospheric CO2 levels (for historical comparison to current) and passage of the solar system through the various “arms” of the Milky Way Galaxy

• We also know precisely (from Newton laws of physics and mechanics)

– The Earth’s rotational and orbital position history
– The Solar System’s location history with respect to the (Milky Way) galaxy’s gravitational field contours, debris & gas clouds, cosmic rays, Supernova events, etc.

Page 29

Temperature & Cosmic Ray Evidence
• Naturally occurring oxygen is composed of three stable isotopes, 16O, 17O, and 18O, with 16O being the most abundant (99.762% natural abundance).
• Evaporation of water preferentially favors water with lighter oxygen (16O). This water falls as snow and accumulates as ice sheets.
• During glaciation light oxygen has been removed from the oceans and the water in the oceans becomes relatively concentrated in heavy oxygen (18O). So too does life.
• Floating marine organisms in glacial times are enriched in 18O whereas in warmer times, they are enriched in 16O.
• Thus, by measuring the oxygen in the ice, the past temperature at that layer of snowfall can be calculated.
• Trace amounts of other isotopes in ice such as 14C and 10Be give us the history of the activity of the Sun and the varying input cosmic radiation.

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Topics

• Climate Fundamentals

• Climate History

• The “Man-made” Hypothesis
• Evidence & Computer Models
• IPCC, FunnyBiz, EPA, Congress & the Courts
• Kyoto & Waxman-Markey (ACES)

Page 31

Climate reconstruction over the last 65M years showing ice sheet developments. Earth is currently cool.

Climate reconstruction over the last 65M years showing ice sheet
developments. Earth is currently cool.

Global sea level over the past 450K years. The last interglacial (warming) period had a level 7 meters higher than present.

Previous interglacial periods have been warmer than the current one and Polar bears have lived in all of them.

Previous interglacial periods have been warmer than the current one and Polar bears have lived in all of them.

Arctic sea ice area variation (lower plot) and annual change in Antarctic sea ice (upper plot). There is little or no change associated with the late 20th Century warming.
Arctic sea ice area variation (lower plot) and annual change in Antarctic sea ice (upper plot).There is little or no change associated with the late 20th Century warming.


Top

Topics

• Climate Fundamentals
• Climate History

• The “Man-made” Hypothesis

• Evidence & Computer Models
• IPCC, FunnyBiz, EPA, Congress & the Courts
• Kyoto & Waxman-Markey (ACES)

Page 36

Beginnings of a Movement*

• 1827 – Josephe Fourier (Fourier analysis) suggests that the Earth’s atmosphere traps solar heat.
• 1860 – John Tyndall reports that only the “greenhouse” gases in the atmosphere have this property
• 1896 – Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius calculates that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 would increase global temperatures 5 deg C
He was wrong!
• 1938 – English meteorologist Guy Challender suggests that the temperature rise of the 1920s & 1930s (Oklahoma dust bowl – “Grapes of Wrath”) might be due to human release of CO2 into the atmosphere
– He was wrong about the direct causation to temperature change but right about CO2 being good for agriculture
– The climate began to cool about that time (1940 – 1976)


* This and the next 2 charts are quoted from “Heaven and Earth” by Ian Plimer

Page 37

A Movement Gathers Steam – but Which is it?

• 24 Jun 1974 issue of Time(also Newsweek 28 Apr 1975 and National Geographic 1976) : “The world will suffer from a new ice age
– Not a bad prediction in that we have been in an ice age which began 37M years ago and are currently in an “interglacial” warming period within that ice age
• 3 Apr 2006
Time issues a report predicting dire consequencesfor humankind due to global warming – the same effect that was heralded in the 1974 issue
1977 – Climatologist Stephen Schneider co-authors a book warning of the horrors of a new ice age
– He now warns us of global warming
1975
– Lowell Ponte publishes a book on global cooling stating in stark terms the nature of the challenge to humans in adapting to the new freeze
Substitute “warming” for “cooling”and we have the identical alarmism 30 years later

• One gets the idea: The prognostications are consistently contradictory

Page 38

Climbing Aboard the Bandwagon

• During the cold war, environmental groups were then anti-nuclear
– After the collapse of the Soviet Union, they became “green”
• 1988 – The UN establishes the “Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”(IPCC)
– and attracts the greens
• Crispin Tickell, a lobbyist for the IPCC was the UN’s UK permanent representative. In 1977 he too published a book on global cooling
– but now warns of global warming
• 1989 – The US Senate Committee on Science, Technology and Space – chaired by Al Gore – addresses the global warming issue
Evidence contrary to the man-made hypothesis is dismissed!
– The Climate Action Network is formed, the media joins the campaign and many climb aboard the band wagon
Those with a dissenting opinion are attacked in the NY Times

• 2003 – Al Gore’s Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX) is formed to facilitate greenhouse gas reduction, encourage green energy investment and institute a carbon credit trading exchange – partnered with IntercontinentalExchange (ICX)

Page 39

A Historical Quote

• "If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it.
• The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic or military consequences of the lie.
• It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie,
• and thus by extension the truth is the greatest enemy of the State."

– Joseph Goebbels
– Reich Minister of Public Enlightenment and Propaganda underAdolph Hitler 1933

Page 40


This 'hockey stick' was the icon of the IPCC


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Topics

• Climate Fundamentals
• Climate History
• The “Man-made” Hypothesis

• Evidence & Computer Models

• IPCC, FunnyBiz, EPA, Congress & the Courts
• Kyoto & Waxman-Markey (ACES)

Page 42

Carbon Distributions & Circulation

• 3,000B tons of CO2 in the atmosphere = 800B tons of Carbon
• Carbon distributions in the atmosphere-ocean-upper crust system:

– Atmosphere 0.0012%
– Oceans & Ice 0.0600%
– Soil, vegetation, humus 0.0031%
– Carbonate rock & limestone 99.9357%

• Each year the atmosphere

– exchanges 11.3% of its total CO2 with the surface ocean and 13.8% with vegetation
– yields at least half of its human CO2 emissions to soil and ocean lock up

• Volcanoes produce more CO2 than vehicles + industry
• Animals produce 25 times as much CO2 as vehicles + industry

• CO2 is a plant food, not a pollutant!

– The EPA (and the state of California) have conjured up a whole new meaning for the term “pollutant”

Page 43


The so-called “greenhouse effect” is non-existent in a physics sense as applied to the Earth, however, we use it here as just another name for heat capture and re-radiation (predominantly toward space). In order to maintain a reference to popular nomenclature we acquiesce to the name “greenhouse gases: ‘GHG’s“

Human activity produces some GHG’s
How significant is this contribution to the greenhouse effect?

The Dirty Little Secret About the “Greenhouse Effect”

Impossibility and fictitious origins of the greenhouse effect

Click here to read entire paper by Gerlich & Tscheuschner titled “Falsification of The Atmospheric CO2 Greenhouse Effects Within The Frame of Physics”

Page 45


Increase in greenhouse gas-induced atmospheric temperature change is highly non-linear with CO2 absorbed by the atmospheric. Thus, with the atmosphere currently at 385 parts per million by volume (ppmv), a doubling or quadrupling of CO2 will have very little effect.

This is why CO2 content in the Earth’s distant past was 25 times higher than at present and there was no temperature “tipping point” as claimed by the IPCC.

No relationship between CO2 and temperature

The first 20 ppmv of CO2 operating as a greenhouse gas in the atmosphere has the greatest effect on termperature. After about 200 ppmv, CO2 has done its peak job as a greenhouse gas and has absorbed almost all the infra-red energy it can absorb. Once the atmosphere is at the present CO2 content of 385 ppmv, a doubling or quadrupling of the atmospheric CO2 content will have very little effect on the atmospheric temperature. This is why in former times when atmospheric CO2 content was up to 25 times the current content, there was no runaway greenhouse or “tipping point”.

Page 46


Pettenkofer method CO2 history- from Antarctic ice core measurements -vs- that promoted by the IPCC in order to show pre-industrial CO2 as lower than at the onset of the industrial age.

Pettenkofer method CO2 history shows CO2 higher before start of industrial age

Determinations of atmospheric CO2 by the Pettenkofer method (solid line on 5 year averages) between 1812 and 1961, deductions of atmospheric CO2 from Antarctic ice core (gas chromagraphy) and editied measurements of atmospheric CO2 from Mauna Loa (infra-red spectroscopy, 1958 and onwards). One method of measurement shows great variability in atmospheric CO2, yet another does not. The high values of CO2 by the Pettenkofer method have been rejected by the IPCC yet the lowest value is used by the IPCC as the baseline pre-industrial value for atmospheric CO2

Page 47


When forcing(s) change, energy is rebalanced such that the radiation from the atmosphere into space is offset by the sum of the Solar energy dissipated within the atmosphere and the Earth’s surface and the radiation from the Earth itself as a source of energy.

Impossibility of greenhouse effect in physics

If there were a hypothetical doubling of CO2 absorption, the non-linear increase in temperature would not drive greater than a few tenths of a deg C in surface temperature since (in the absence of greater Solar output) the increase in CO2 backscattered energy would be easily offset by greater surface radiation and evaporative cooling.
In a strictly physics sense the “greenhouse effect” is a myth.

Page 48

IPCC model predictions


Actual atmospheric temperatures from globally distribute high altitude radiosonde balloon measurements from 1958 through 2006.
Basedon corresponding CO2 variations, none of the four IPCC model predictions (previous chart) could be validated.
Yet the predictions are still used by the IPCC. Note greatly reduced temperature scale (deg C per 10-year period) compared with previous chart.

Actual measured atmospheric temperatures contradict IPCC models

The subject of the EPA/NCEE-cited paper by Paltrige,Arking, and Pook.

IPCC models do not account for the complexities of oceanic thermal transfer, atmospheric boundary layer excursions, evaporation or cloud formation.

The various IPCC computer models have been show to be greatly oversimplified in terms of correctly modeling – or even including! – evidential behavior of the major climate mechanisms

Page 50

Milankovitch Cycles showing relationship of temperature with Earth-sun orbital relationships and Earth spin axis

Last 6M years of temperature (per oxygen ratio) showing Milankovitch Cycle effects. The shift to weaker 100K year cycles about 1M years ago is unexplained.
6 million years of temperature cycles

Temperature increased as sunspot cycle length decreased, showing strong correlation.
There is no correlation of temperature with CO2. The hypothesis that CO2 causes global warming is false.
Temperature increased as sunspot cycle length decreased, showing strong correlation.

Page 53

Carboniferous and Jurassic ice ages occurred when atmospheric CO2 was higher than at present.

The hypothesis that high atmospheric CO2 produces global warming is therefore invalid!

Carboniferous and Jurassic <b>ice ages occurred when atmospheric</b> CO2 was higher than at present. So the hypothesis that CO2 produces global warming is invalid” /></p>
<div class=Plot of atmospheric CO2 time and temperature showing that the Ordovician,Perma-Carboniferous and Jurassic ice ages occured when atmospheric CO2 was higher than present. The hypothesis that a high atmospheric CO2 produces global warming is therefore invalid.

Page 54

NCEE Draft Report to EPA Management Early 2009

• The National Center for Environmental Economics (NCEE) is a branch of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
• NCCE scientists were tasked to review a draft report, known as the “TSD” = Technical Support Document, which would serve as both (1) a guide for legislative recommendations to the US congress on “Human Endangerment from Greenhouse Gases” and (2) justification for regulating CO2 under the Clean Air Act.
The staff scientists issued a highly critical report taking the IPCC position on climate change to task, casting doubt on the viability of the IPCC climate models employed by EPA, and recommending an independent investigation by the EPA on the scientific basis or lack thereof for the man-made global warming hypothesis
• Their summary:
• 1 – The TSD should not have been based on the IPCC AR4 report since it was out of date “in a rapidly changing field”
• 2 – “Global temperatures have declined and the PDO and AMO (Pacific and Atlantic decadal and multidecadal oscillations) have gone negative while atmospheric CO2 has increased and CO2 emissions have accelerated”

Page 55

NCEE Summary (cont’d)

• 3 – “The consensus on Atlantic hurricanes has changed: the future will be much like the past”

4 – “A new 2009 paper finds that the crucial assumption in the GCM models used by the IPCC concerning strongly positive feedback from water vapor is not supported by empirical evidence and that the feedback is actually negative” (a following slide)

• 5 – “A new 2009 paper by Scafetta and West suggest that the IPCC used faulty solar data in dismissing the direct effect of solar variability on global temperatures. Their research suggests that solar variability could account for up to 68% of the increase in Earth’s global temperatures.“ (a following slide)

• 6 – “These developments alone should influence EPA assessment” They’re based on old science and need to be revised.

• “Other disturbing inconsistencies” regarding the IPCC climate models and their glaring shortcomings. These six paragraphs go into much of what we’ve discussed in the foregoing slides.

• “These inconsistencies are so important and sufficiently abstruse [incomprehensible, unfathomable] as to practically demand that the EPA undertake an independent assessment and study of the scientific facts”

Click here to read the NCEE Comments on Greenhouse Gas Emissions-Skeptical Suppressed EPA Report.

Page 56

NCEE Report Reference: Solar Forcing Work by Scafetta et all

• Two modeling approaches: energy balance models (EBMs) and global climate model (GCM)
– IPCC GCM model does not capture water vapor or clouds
– Large discrepancies between model predictions & reality
• Alternative approach: multilinear regression using simple EBMs
– inputs are the various climate forcings (solar, GHG, cosmic,…), outputs are proportional to temperature
 ΔT(t) = ΣFFSF(t) + N(t))
– Run EBM with known F’s to get SF(t)) = climate forcing functions
– Regress to get a αF’s (amplifications) by using known temp history ΔT(t)
• Results show IPCC models are missing important climate mechanisms which amplify Solar signatures on climate by a large factor

– IPCC models assume that only TSI is relevant whereas cosmic radiation affects cloud formation and, thus, albedo (solar reflection from the Earth and Earth’s atmosphere)

Page 57

Using Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) shows that the sun is, by far, the major climate driver

NCEE Report Reference: Water vapor feedback

• The insignificance of CO2 – and especially the very small human contribution thereof – as a greenhouse gas compared with water vapor is a huge problem for the “man-made” proponents. Thus…
• The IPCC models assume a positive feedback on water vapor from increased CO2 – meaning that just slightly more CO2 produces more water vapor and, thus, more greenhouse effect
– The infamous “CO2 tipping point”
• Reanalysis of NCEP data (Paper by Paltridge, Arking and Pook) reveals that, over the long term, the feedback is actually negative (and may be practically negligible)
• The IPCC models depend on an effect which is the exact opposite of reality!

Page 59

Reply by EPA Management to Scientists who authored the NCEE Report

• EPA management: “The administrator and the administration has decided to move forward [in support of the CO2 endangerment initiative]…and your comments do not help the legal or policy case for this decision.“

• The House of Representatives passed HR 2454 by a vote of 219 – 212 on June 26, 2009.

• The Senate was tentatively scheduled to begin debate on the bill in the Spring of 2010 – but has never done so.

• In spite of stern advice from their own NCEE science staff to undertake extensive scientific findings which do not reply on IPCC reports, “the EPA has assumed – on its own – the authority to “regulate” man-made CO2 via the provisions of the existing Clean Air Act (CAA)!

Page 60

Key Findings Related to the “Man-made” Hypothesis

• Warming coincident with sunspot activity is seen on all of the planets and many of their moons

• There is no historical relationship with CO2 and temperature. In the past CO2 was 25 times higher than today. If climate is unrelated to CO2 over the past 525M years, how can it have become related now?

• The carbon cycle piggybacks on the water cycle.

• Increased solar activity shields the Earth from galactic cosmic rays thus reducing cloud cover

• A diversity of data sets has shown an unambiguous synchronous linkage between sunspot activity & climate.

• High rainfall & flooding at the start of the first sunspot cycle (atmospheric & ocean turbulence); the second sunspot cycle is a drought event with sudden reversals between the two periods between drought and flooding. Consistent global evidence of the 1500 year solar cycle as well (e.g. the Medieval Warming period)

• If the popular catastrophic view is accepted, then there should have been a runaway greenhouse effect when CO2 was more than 4000 ppmv (parts per million by volume)

• Instead there were glaciations

Page 61

In Summary

• The sun is the dominant source of heat for planet Earth.

• Earth surface temperatures are driven by energy balancing mechanisms featuring a combination of atmospheric heat conduction and radiation (into space), including reflection of heat from the sun due to cloud cover (water vapor condensation).

• Beyond the (lesser) variations due to solar Milankovitch phenomena (page 51), the variations in condensation, due, in turn, to variations in cosmic particle flux, are the dominant drivers of climate.

– Cosmic particle penetration is greatest when the solar system is within the magnetic confines of one of the Milky Way’s galactic arms or spurs, resulting in climate cycles which are predominantly glacial (dry and cold).
– Climate cycles are predominantly tropical (warm and wet) during transit of the solar system between galactic arms and spurs.

• Mean global surface temperature, i.e. climate, is a consequence of the above and has no significant correlation with atmospheric CO2

– The totality of all atmospheric CO2, both man-made and natural, has an insignificant effect on Earth surface temperatures. This is due to its relatively small contribution to heat transfer within the atmospheric energy exchange system (water vapor condensation, heat conduction, and radiation). Since the man-made fraction of atmospheric CO2 is itself exceedingly small, the man-made contribution to climate (Earth surface temperature) is, for all practical purposes, negligible.

• There is no atmospheric CO2 greenhouse effect
– Such a mechanism (as claimed by most proponents of the notion of man-made climate change) does not exist under the laws of physics.

• There is no CO2 “tipping point”
– Not even large amounts of additional atmospheric CO2, i.e. 4,000 ppmv (over 10 times greater than current levels) as is known from historical CO2 records, have exhibited any effect on climate.

Page 62


Top

Topics

• Climate Fundamentals
• Climate History
• The “Man-made” Hypothesis
• Evidence & Computer Models

• IPCC, FunnyBiz, EPA, Congress & the Courts

• Kyoto & Waxman-Markey (ACES)

Page 63

Continuing with the Man-made Hypothesis Initiative…

• 1990 – The IPCC’s first of many voluminous reports followed by the draft Summary for Policymakers which in this and all subsequent reports would be:

– Submitted to governments each of which can insist on changes negotiated behind closed doors with little input from the scientists who wrote the underlying volumes
– Forming the basis for a negotiating process between a few lead scientists and politicians
– With no scientific peer review solicited outside of the IPCC member staff prior to generation of the draft summary

• Of the claimed 2,500 scientists who wrote the report, only 1,190 individuals wrote the scientific part and many of these were not scientists but political and environmental activists
• 2001 – One of the persistent problems with the IPCC “science” was the pesky existence of the temperature data from the Medieval warming period which exceeded that of post-industrial times

• This problem was cured by simply revising history!
– By employing data “produced” via a 1998 study by Mann which, in turn, produced the infamous “hockey stick” algorithm and plot

Page 64

The “Stick” Hits the Fan

• Canadians McIntyre and McKitrick (M&M) analyze Mann’s data, finding significant errors and oversights in the report conclusion

• An article by M&M and the failure of Mann and his co- authors to cooperate in fact-finding queries by M&M motivate the US House Energy and Commerce Committee (ECC) to ask pro forma questions regarding federal funds used in the research behind the Mann report

• The political storm which followed included additional claims and counter claims from both sides – and, of course, concern about offending the IPCC

• ECC then appointed an eminent team of statisticians led by Dr. Ed Wegmen to investigate

Page 65

The “Stick” and “Stern”

• The Wegmen team’s criticism (2006) of the Mann, et al, report was far-reaching in citing badly flawed statistical methodology and lack of interest in review and critique by statisticians and professionals of other scientific disciplines in the development of the computer program which produced the “hockey stick” plot

• The criticism of M&M was even more to the point claiming that “The flawed computer program can even pull out spurious hockey stick shapes from lists of random numbers”

• The “Stern Report” suffers from similar problems in some ways even more damming to the report’s conclusions

• Based on the history of the “hockey stick”, Stern, and the means by which the summary reports are generated within the IPCC, it’s difficult to have confidence in any statement on climate predictions issuing from the IPCC and those who profit from a relationship with the “man-made global warming” (now called “climate change”) conglomerate

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“Climategate”

• 11/23/09 – Internal climate change proponents’ network emails exposed to public – “Climate Research Unit” (CRU) of the University of East Anglica (UK)
Content of CRU emails: Discussion of methods

– for hiding and/or altering data which invalidates the “CO2 tipping point” assertion
– for avoiding legal inquiries – via both the US congress and freedom of information laws in US and UK – for scientific data, memos, papers, etc.
– to discourage scientific journals from publishing data / scientific papers from dissenters
– to counter critiques from and discredit scientists who have exposed fraudulent methods of man-made climate change proponents

• Media Reaction
– Largely ignored by NYT and other “MSM” in a substantive sense
– Email “break-in” denounced
• IPCC chairman, Pauchari, laments the event and affirms the IPCC’s “impartiality, openness, objectivity, peer review standards and transparency”.
• Feb 21, 2011 A Memorandum of Understanding Between the UN Environment Programme & the Environmental Protection Agency of the United States of America was signed by EPA Director Lisa Jackson. Click here to review the entire MOU which serves to encourage the limitation of energy to consumers by means such as “smart electric meters”.

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Some Legal Filings & Findings

Oct 2007 – Viscount Lord Christopher Monckton of Brenchley serves as the scientific advisor for a successful UK court challenge to the movie “An inconvenient truth” citing 35 errors which distort or exaggerate in the direction of unjustified alarm – producing a statistical probability of 1 in 34 billion for the viability of Gore’s claims.
– The judge rules 19 major discrepancies all of which differ from the scientific data and the movie is prohibited from being shown in UK public schools

April 2009 – U.S. Chamber of Commerce files a 21-page petition with EPA, asking the agency to approve an on-the-record proceeding with an independent trier of fact who would allow EPA and environmental and business groups to engage in a “credible weighing” of the scientific evidence that global warming endangers human health (NYT 08/25/09)

Nov 2009 – The Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) files three Notices of Intent to File Suit against NASA for “Climate Change Fraud”

• Feb 2012 – Numerous lawsuits have been filed against the EPA for fraud and nuisance by states, consumer groups, and industrial companies seeking rulings which, in essence, address the lack of proof and/or viability of the theory of anthropogenic global warming.

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“Human Endangerment” & the Clean Air Act

• Dec 2009 – EPA declares that CO2 is a pollutant to be regulated under the Clean Air Act due to “human endangerment” and begins instituting rules and regulations on CO2 emissions
• This is in contradiction to the reply by the EPA NCEE scientists to EPA management regarding the basis for such a finding and the recommendation to undertake an “independent study” of the ‘man- made’ hypothesis – given the faulted reliance of the EPA on IPCC findings
• Feb 2011 – U.S. House Energy & Commerce Committee (ECC) Chairman Upton (R-OK) introduces a “Discussion Draft” to amend the Clean Air Act prohibiting the EPA from regulating greenhouse gases based on possible climate change, stating that “The Clean Air Act was not written by Congress to address climate change”
• Jan 2011 – A companion bill the “Defending America’s Affordable Energy and Jobs Act (S. 228)” is introduced by Senator Barrosso (R-Wyo) along with 10 co-sponsors

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Federal Court Findings and Implications

• 2003 – EPA determines that it lacks the authority to regulate CO2 as a GHG for climate change purposes under the Clean Air Act (CAA)
– and declines also to set vehicle emissions standards
• 2005 – Upon suit by Several states, cities, and environmental groups DC Appeals Court upholds EPA determination
• 2006 – The Supreme Court grants certiorari and takes up the issue
• 2007 – The Supreme Court issues a 5 – 4 ruling in favor of the greens:
– The majority comments that greenhouse gases fit the CAA’s capacious definition of an air pollutant
– The minority disagree
– The EPA is remanded to review its contention regarding CO2 regulation
• 2009 – The EPA issues its “Human Endangerment” report to the congress

– In spite of strong dissent and recommendations for an independent review of the scientific facts from its NCEE scientists (cited above)
• 2010 – Alabama, Texas, Virginia and other parties seek judicial review of EPA’s determination
• June, 2012 – DC Appeals Court (3-judge panel) dismisses the challenges to EPA’s Endangerment finding

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Federal Court Findings and Implications (cont’d)

• In all of the findings for all of the hearings, the court shows deliberate disinterest in the quality of the science which might be required to justify the declaration of man-made atmospheric CO2 as a pollutant to be regulated.
• Instead, the Supreme Court, in its narrow 5-4 decision, defers to the EPA as the agency which shall have the determining authority in such matters
• No reference is made anywhere in the court proceedings to water vapor, virtually all of which is produced naturally – none of significance by human activity – and which dominates the greenhouse effect: 95% of the total
• Neither is there any reference to Earth’s climate history and to evidential & statistical findings that the major drivers of climate are the Sun and Galactic phenomena
• Only legislation by the U.S. Congress can halt action by the EPA, on a fool’s errand, to attempt to exercise control over the Earth’s climate by regulating CO2 emissions

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Topics

• Climate Fundamentals
• Climate History
• The “Man-made” Hypothesis
• Evidence & Computer Models
• IPCC, FunnyBiz, EPA, Congress & the Courts

• Kyoto & Waxman-Markey (ACES)

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The Kyoto Protocol

• The Kyoto Protocol is based on global temperature changes and atmospheric CO2 changes
• Yet,

– Global surface temperature and atmospheric CO2 are uncorrelated
– The CO2 rise is linear even though CO2 emissions from Chinese and Indian industry has risen dramatically (highly nonlinear)
– Natural CO2 absorption and release at the Earth’s surface far exceeds human CO2 emissions – as do emissions from volcanoes: Pinatubo’s emissions were worth a year of current human emissions
– Methane emissions from termites is 20 times more potent than human emissions

• While Gulf state nations are uninhibited legally with regard to CO2 emissions, many western countries are forced (by legislation) to employ the most costly & unreliable means of electrical power generation available

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HR 2454 ACES

• The American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009
– The Waxman-Markey Bill
– The House of Representatives passed HR 2454 by a vote of 219-212 on June 26, 2009.

• Phased increase of percentage of electrical power which must be
provided via “renewables” – with trading of credits
• Regulations on geological sequestration of CO2 emissions – deep well injection from & regulation of coal-fired plants
• Development of “plug-in” electric vehicles and supporting infrastructure
• Imposition of efficiency standards for industrial equipment, electric motors, lighting and appliances
• Imposition of standards for new buildings and retrofits of old buildings
• Rebates to low-income buyers of new Energy Star qualified manufactured homes
• Sets motor vehicle GHG emission standards including for heavy-duty, marine, locomotive & aircraft

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HR 2454 ACES (cont’d)

• Monetary awards to energy production firms using nuclear or fossil fuel for the use of “innovative means” in recovery of additional energy – including grants to community organizations for projects improving efficiency and development of alternative, renewable energy systems for low income residents
• Cap and reduce GHG emissions on a phased schedule for “capped” sources down to 17% of 2005 levels by 2050
• Phases in prohibitions against “covered entities” exceeding allowable emission levels – sets forth penalties & provides for trading of emission allowances
• Quarterly auction of allowances from strategic GHG emissions reserve account 2012 – 2050
• Establishment of an international climate change program
• Establish regulations effecting impact on GHG emissions from deforestation in developing countries (foreign business reg?)

Page 75

HR 2454 ACES (cont’d)

• Specification of emission allowances for deforestation reductions (vegetation sucks up CO2), home heating, auctions for benefit of low income consumers, carbon capture, etc.
• Distribution, auctions, banking, exchange, and international transfer of emission allowances
• Amends the Commodity Exchange Act to enable energy commodities derivative trading giving the Commodity Futures Trading Commission jurisdiction
• Gives the president authority to adjust GHG trade requirements for industrial sectors suffering “negative impacts” from compliance with GHG emission requirements

• Secretary of Education awards grants to eligible partnerships “focused on emerging careers and jobs in renewable energy, energy efficiency, and climate change mitigation including assistance to adversely affected workers

Page 76

HR 2454 ACES (cont’d)

• Tax credit to low income taxpayers “to compensate for reductions in their purchasing power” resulting from regulation of GHGs – plus an “Energy Refund Program to give low-income households a monthly cash refund equivalent to their loss in purchasing power”
• The president to establish a “National Climate Change Adaptation Program”, the Sec of Commerce a “National Climate Service”, the Sec of HHS … Sec of State … an International Climate Change Adaptation Program

HR 2454 (the Waxman-Markey bill) was not approved by the U.S. Senate prior to the 2010 and 2012 elections. However, there’s little doubt that after the 2014 mid-term elections, HR 2454 will be reactivated for discussion and vote.

Lacking even that eventuality, the current administration has already signaled (SOTU address Feb 2013) that it will attempt to enforce even more stringent CO2 regulations by executive order via the Clean Air Act.

On September 4, 2014, The United States Senate Environmental & Public Woks Committee issued its: “Critical Thinking on Climate Change; Empirical Evidence to Consider Before Taking Regulatory Action & Implementing Economic Policies” report. Click here to review the report in its entirety.

Page 77

H.R. 2454

• The implications for unprecedented government intrusion into commerce, massive increases in the cost of energy and a ‘crony capitalism’ connection between government and favored commercial enterprises are mind-boggling

• The cost to “We the People” will become even more horrendous than it is now if and when this measure is signed into law – not only in terms of tax increases and a greatly reduced standard of living, but in loss of personal liberty as well

If one knew that the president and members of the U.S. Congress held even the slightest doubt about the viability of the man-made hypothesis and the proponents’ fraudulent claims regarding CO2 as the “ticking time bomb”, then one would be compelled to ask:

• “With such knowledge, why would they hasten the attempt to force this draconian law on the U.S. public?”

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H.R. 2454 (cont’d)

• The Clean Energy legislation is not about saving the planet with clean energy
• The aim is increased and more permanent government controlof citizens via
– Restrictions on commerce and personal liberty, taxation, globalization, old-boy network alliances and wealth transfer bribery to cooperating socialist governments

• Unlike the prosperity-enabling citizen-government relationship which is prescribed in the Constitution of the United States of America: “Government of the People by the People and for the People”,
• the inevitable corruption and tyranny resulting from unfounded regulations – that have destroyed individual liberties in all societies wherein government has become the master and the citizen the servant – will, unless defeated, also destroy ours.

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